Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
