Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
