It was eight weeks in the past when the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the victories have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
