Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.