War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".